Investing For Value

Tips E-20: A 1-minute summary of my fundamental analysis of Cogent Communications Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: CCOI)   Investment Thesis The Sprint wireline acquisition materially weakened near-term margins and returns, masking Cogent’s historically strong, cash-generative network economics. While management has a credible integration plan to restore profitability, the market already prices in much of this recovery. Main Business Cogent is a facilities-based global IP network operator with a strong on-net model and scalable backbone infrastructure. The company delivers IP transit, VPN, and bandwidth services across 56 countries, with North America contributing about 86% of revenue.  Growth Revenue growth was historically steady and acquisition-driven recently. From 2015–2022, Cogent grew organically at a 5.5% CAGR before revenue jumped 53% in 2023 due to the Sprint acquisition. However, 2024 growth slowed to 7%, and early 2025 showed contraction. Profitability Sprint ...

This is Chapter 3 of my book Mastering Value Investing: Practical Strategies for Real-World Results . Go there for links to the other chapters. Most investors think risk means volatility. They are wrong. The real danger in investing is not price swings – it is permanent capital loss. And once your capital is gone, compounding stops forever. In this chapter, I challenge one of the most common myths in investing: that higher returns come from taking more risk. In reality, the investors who survive and compound wealth over decades are those who focus on what can destroy them first. You will learn why market volatility is not the enemy - but leverage, concentration, weak balance sheets, and emotional decisions are. Price fluctuations create opportunities; bad businesses, excessive debt, and forced selling create disasters. Intelligence does not protect you from risk. Process does. You will also see why writing down your investment process matters more than finding the next “g...

Tips E-19: A 1-minute summary of my fundamental analysis of Willdan Group Inc. (NASDAQ: WLDN)            Investment Thesis The company’s post-2022 shift toward integrated energy services has driven organic growth, improving margins and cash flow. However, a long history of weak returns, volatile profitability, and capital inefficiency tempers confidence. Even under optimistic assumptions, there is no margin of safety. Main Business Willdan has transformed into a predominantly energy-focused services provider. The business now operates mainly through its Energy segment, which contributed about 84% of 2024 revenue, serving U.S. utilities and public agencies. Growth Revenue growth has been strong historically and is increasingly driven by organic demand rather than acquisitions. Profitability While PAT grew at a 20.4% CAGR over the decade, profits were highly volatile and only recovered meaningfully after 2022. Gross and contribution margins show...

Value Investing Case Study 117-1: A fundamental analysis of i-Berhad to assess whether this is an asset-backed value with execution-driven upside.  

Tips E-18: A 1-minute summary of my fundamental analysis of Millicom International Cellular S.A. (NASDAQ: TIGO)       Investment Thesis Millicom represents a structurally improved Latin American telecom turnaround. Over the past decade, the company delivered a 24.8% CAGR in operating profit despite modest revenue growth. While intrinsic value suggests upside, optimistic assumptions and leverage justify waiting for a deeper margin of safety. Main Business Millicom now operates a streamlined, Latin America–only telecom platform. The business spans mobile, fixed broadband, and smaller ancillary services under the Tigo brand, with Colombia and Guatemala contributing roughly half of revenue. Growth From 2022–2024, reported revenue grew only 1.6% CAGR, broadly in line with regional telecom growth. Expansion drivers include FTTH rollout, fixed-wireless 5G, postpaid mobile gains, and faster-growing B2B services, though none are likely to materially exceed mark...